Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x8787…0b17 crypto 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$489 (+7%) realized +$489 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate66%44W / 23L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$2
other 29% −$1
crypto 26% +$491
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 1 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 67 -5.2% -14.2% 66% 1% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 1% -3.1%
10% -22.4% 1% -12.4%
15% -29.9% 1% -20.9%
20% -36.8% 1% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×10.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.27 per $1 lost it wins $20.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$489
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses44 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage577d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 21 $32 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Apr 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will "Opalite" by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week o Apr 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? Mar 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 23 $31 +$1 +4%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $705 in November? Dec 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 13? Nov 23 $31 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET Nov 10 $509 +$509 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November Nov 10 $1,022 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 07 $5 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? Nov 07 $5 $0 +3%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $590 −$1 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Oct 09 $12 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 25 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2500 before July 14? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110000 on May 16? May 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana hit $300 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 22 $1,071 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +2%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia? Jan 16 $1 $0 +6%
Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal? Jan 16 $2 $0 +1%
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +1%
'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office? Dec 29 $2 $0 +9%
Will RFK Jr. get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Social Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the Icelandi Dec 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will another party win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary el Dec 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be the next President of Namibia? Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump win Alabama by 30+ points? Dec 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 99¢ $32 60d
Will "Opalite" by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week o SELL No 99¢ $1 102d
Will "Opalite" by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week o BUY No 100¢ $17 102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $15 102d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $13 117d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 117d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 117d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 117d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 117d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 117d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 117d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 117d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $1 117d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $1 117d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi BUY No 96¢ $31 159d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 178d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $16 210d
Will Microsoft reach $705 in November? BUY No 100¢ $15 210d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 222d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 7, 11AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $509 226d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $1,022 226d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 244d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 244d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 99¢ $5 244d
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $5 244d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $589 255d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $33 255d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $590 255d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 153 history records