Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x878a…a429 other 230 markets active 11h ago coverage 59d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,210 (+2%) realized +$2,227 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate34%74W / 143L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day57.9pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$3,457
sports 7% −$404
tech 0% −$16
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -11.3% -19.8% 28% 25% -20.4%
≤30d 113 -7.5% -16.3% 30% 27% -32.5%
≤90d 217 -7.2% -16.1% 34% 27% -12.5%
all 217 -7.2% -16.1% 34% 27% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 27% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 21% -20.9%
15% -31.4% 16% -28.5%
20% -38.2% 12% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$123 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$2,227
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses74 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions13
Markets (closed)217 / 230
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$445
Trades / day57.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $54 $40 −$14 (-26%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $22 +$8 (+50%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 23¢ 22¢ $23 $22 −$2 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $16 −$2 (-8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Over $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+6%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Over $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Mexico $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 −$10 -58%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $15 +$285 +1845%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 −$4 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $22 −$21 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $113 −$18 -16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $161 −$110 -68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $67 −$54 -80%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $409 −$4 -1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $397 −$395 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $36 +$7 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -72%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,362 −$108 -8%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $338 −$270 -80%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $193 +$106 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $55 −$3 -6%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $222 −$122 -55%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $79 +$19 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $69 +$31 +45%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $47 +$52 +110%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $194 +$97 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $509 +$86 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $228 +$70 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $180 −$122 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $284 +$16 +6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $262 +$38 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $16 +$84 +510%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $17 −$10 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 10h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $6 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 12h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 12h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 23¢ $24 12h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico $9 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $7 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $7 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $2 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $4 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $9 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 12h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $9 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $6 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $1 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $0 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Over $9 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $8 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $15 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $2 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $0 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $1 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.90 · official $215.90 (match) · 3500 history records