Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x878c…0694 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$7
other 24% +$1
politics 14% −$5
crypto 5% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 17% -7.0%
≤30d 17 +0.4% -9.1% 24% 12% -8.5%
≤90d 17 +0.4% -9.1% 24% 12% -8.5%
all 55 -2.0% -11.4% 36% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 4% -9.2%
10% -19.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage430d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $41 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $36 +$5 +15%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $8 $0 -5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $32 +$4 +13%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $63 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $69 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $25 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $70 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $15 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 18 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? May 07 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 27 $14 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 24 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 24 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $18 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $23 4h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $8 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $33 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $28 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $28 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $36 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $9 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $9 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $29 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $7 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $39 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records