Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
87 0x8790…c198 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$45 (+3%) realized +$41 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip
Net edge+54%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$471
14 days+$471
30 days+$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$76
tech 15% +$65
sports 11% +$471
crypto 7% $0
politics 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +240.2% +207.8% 100% 100% +205.4%
≤30d 3 +210.1% +180.6% 100% 100% +203.8%
≤90d 3 +210.1% +180.6% 100% 100% +203.8%
all 13 +70.6% +54.3% 92% 77% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.3% 77% +25.1%
10% +39.6% 77% +13.1%
15% +26.1% 62% +2.2%
20% +13.7% 46% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +236% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +83% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$259 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage600d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $100 +$49 +49%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge Jun 23 $98 +$421 +431%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 10 $4 +$6 +150%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 28 $4 $0 +3%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 22 $192 +$14 +7%
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Dec 20 $272 −$259 -95%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 30 $202 +$71 +35%
OpenSea airdrop before July? Jun 01 $135 +$43 +32%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 09 $84 +$51 +61%
Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025? Mar 24 $62 +$22 +36%
OpenSea airdrop before April? Feb 13 $31 +$30 +98%
Berachain airdrop in 2024? Dec 27 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $10 +$6 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 10¢ $115 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 15¢ $103 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 2¢ $7 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 36¢ $143 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 98¢ $150 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 1¢ $0 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 65¢ $100 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge BUY 18¢ $98 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 18d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 174d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 174d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? SELL No 76¢ $4 182d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 74¢ $4 186d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? SELL No 5¢ $4 188d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? BUY No 18¢ $14 189d
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale? SELL No 1¢ $12 190d
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale? BUY No 22¢ $272 190d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 74¢ $63 220d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 74¢ $139 220d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? SELL No 86¢ $202 220d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? BUY No 76¢ $17 323d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? BUY No 76¢ $160 324d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? BUY No 76¢ $2 324d
OpenSea airdrop before July? SELL No 90¢ $41 392d
OpenSea airdrop before July? SELL No 90¢ $138 402d
OpenSea airdrop before July? BUY No 68¢ $135 445d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? SELL No 93¢ $135 445d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? BUY No 58¢ $84 448d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.99 · official $210.31 (match) · 72 history records