Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8796…c321 weather 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,008 (-10%) realized −$1,000 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate65%43W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$426
14 days−$974
30 days−$1,148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$764
world 6% −$353
tech 4% +$56
crypto 1% −$16
sports 1% −$68
other 1% −$8
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -44.0% -49.3% 25% 0% -67.7%
≤30d 66 -11.8% -20.2% 65% 26% -20.1%
≤90d 66 -11.8% -20.2% 65% 26% -20.1%
all 66 -11.8% -20.2% 65% 26% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 26% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 14% -27.7%
15% -34.8% 5% -34.7%
20% -41.2% 3% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$79 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$1,000
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses43 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage25d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $81 $76 −$5 (-6%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 20 $46 −$3 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $365 −$360 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $161 +$8 +5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $95 −$71 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $319 −$159 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $299 +$20 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $300 −$238 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $66 −$66 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $56 −$50 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 09 $253 −$36 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 8? Jun 07 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $48 +$15 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $97 +$23 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $153 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $356 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $95 −$34 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $87 +$13 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $26 −$13 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $80 +$18 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $192 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $947 +$34 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $580 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5? Jun 04 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $78 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $92 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $274 +$25 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $63 −$17 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3? Jun 02 $641 +$50 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $98 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2? Jun 01 $137 +$8 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $428 −$363 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $412 −$97 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $403 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $300 −$202 -68%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? May 30 $352 +$56 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $384 +$79 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 29? May 28 $486 −$4 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28? May 28 $273 +$48 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $76 +$100 +131%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 87¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $46 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $3 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $16 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $150 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $142 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $142 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $11 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $8 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL No 24¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL No 24¢ $7 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL No 24¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL No 24¢ $12 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL No 25¢ $41 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL No 55¢ $26 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.83 · official $80.83 (match) · 624 history records