Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8797…159c politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% −$11
world 15% −$2
other 1% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 18 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 18 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 21 -2.4% -11.7% 10% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage247d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $208 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $2 $0 -21%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $199 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $161 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $797 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $2 $0 -19%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $200 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $199 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $198 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 26 $19 $0 +2%
Aster all time high by December 31? Nov 30 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 3h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 5h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 6h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 8h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 9h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 10h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 12h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 14h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 15h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 15h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 18h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 20h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 20h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 22h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 24h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 25h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 27h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 27h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 30h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 30h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 32h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 33h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 34h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 36h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 37h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 38h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.12 · official $227.12 (match) · 99 history records