Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
87 0x879b…9cb2 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$230 (+1%) realized +$836 · open −$606
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$433per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,369
7 days+$1,801
14 days+$1,801
30 days+$1,801
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,190
other 5% +$107
world 1% +$573
politics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +86.9% +69.1% 75% 75% +21.0%
≤30d 12 +86.9% +69.1% 75% 75% +21.0%
≤90d 12 +86.9% +69.1% 75% 75% +21.0%
all 38 +13.3% +2.5% 55% 47% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 47% -8.9%
10% -7.3% 45% -17.6%
15% -16.3% 32% -25.6%
20% -24.5% 26% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$593) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$321 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized+$836
Unrealized−$606
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage596d
Avg bet$433
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 40¢ 18¢ $615 $285 −$331 (-54%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 33¢ $330 $55 −$275 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum Jun 20 $716 +$284 +40%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $775 −$373 -48%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $92 +$508 +550%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $893 +$107 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 +$197 +97%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $257 +$573 +223%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $244 +$356 +146%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $579 +$429 +74%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $378 +$122 +32%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $780 −$780 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $368 +$432 +117%
Cubs vs. Brewers Oct 07 $248 +$195 +79%
Kings vs. Wizards Apr 04 $708 −$708 -100%
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Apr 04 $500 −$500 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 04 $254 −$254 -100%
Sharks vs. Kings Apr 02 $105 +$5 +5%
Tennessee vs. Houston Mar 31 $1,409 +$47 +3%
Nets vs. Wizards Mar 30 $529 −$166 -31%
Cháirez vs. Vergara Mar 30 $155 −$155 -100%
Mavericks vs. Bulls Mar 30 $318 −$318 -100%
Alabama vs. Duke Mar 30 $608 +$32 +5%
Moreno vs. Erceg Mar 30 $865 +$346 +40%
Lakers vs. Grizzlies Mar 30 $429 −$5 -1%
Rodríguez vs. Borjas Mar 30 $440 +$818 +186%
Texas Tech vs. Florida Mar 30 $1,004 +$345 +34%
Thunder vs. Mavericks Jan 18 $562 −$562 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jan 17 $195 −$195 -100%
Hawks vs. Bulls Jan 16 $250 +$507 +203%
Rockets vs. Thunder Dec 15 $593 −$593 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Oilers Dec 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Dec 14 $177 −$177 -100%
Nets vs. Grizzlies Dec 14 $522 +$139 +27%
Warriors vs. Celtics Nov 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" 20 or more times during Pittsburgh rally Nov 06 $44 +$12 +28%
Thunder vs. Clippers Nov 03 $28 +$16 +56%
Warriors vs. Rockets Nov 03 $524 −$496 -95%
Celtics vs. Hornets Nov 02 $425 +$100 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 41¢ $403 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 77¢ $775 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $615 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $337 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum BUY Damir Dzumhur 71¢ $716 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $203 14h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 15¢ $92 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $893 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $244 14h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $53 41h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 75¢ $378 41h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 46¢ $12 42h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $567 42h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $12 42h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $780 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $29 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $12 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $39 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $6 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $111 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $82 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $83 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $253 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.53 · official $349.53 · 145 history records