Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x879b…a5df
sports · 407 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$247 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$305 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$151
Realized−$305
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses216 / 174
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions17
Markets (closed)390 / 407
History coverage26d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 17 History 390 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$5
14 days−$62
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $101 $89 −$12 (-12%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 84¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Curaçao 83¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 50¢ 49¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-2%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Vukic (-1.5) vs Wendelken (+1.5) Wendelken 64¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Diane Parry 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Kraus Polina Kudermetova 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 53¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5) Jodar 67¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 30¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens Elise Mertens 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 Yes 59¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +413%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +180%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$5 +36%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -72%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$1 -77%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 -10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$1 -24%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -73%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $41 +$8 +19%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$4 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$2 +165%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $13 +$2 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $16 +$1 +7%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $6 −$3 -41%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Kaja Juvan Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +43%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +143%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $13 +$4 +27%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +60%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -74%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -48%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $8 −$1 -9%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ shots Jun 12 $1 −$1 -92%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $3 +$3 +114%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $6 +$3 +46%
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) Jun 12 $41 −$1 -3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $11 +$4 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% −$337
crypto 25% +$38
other 9% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 83¢ $4 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 63¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 62¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja BUY Polina Kudermetova 58¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $10 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 50¢ $4 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 67¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $3 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 52¢ $5 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $4 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $3 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 5h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $15 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $10 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $2 5h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $1 5h
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals SELL Yes 9¢ $0 6h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 30¢ $1 6h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 SELL Under 91¢ $5 6h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 63¢ $3 6h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 +15.6% +4.6% 58% 49% -9.8%
≤30d 390 -0.6% -10.1% 55% 45% -12.8%
≤90d 390 -0.6% -10.1% 55% 45% -12.8%
all 390 -0.6% -10.1% 55% 45% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 45% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 37% -21.2%
15% -26.6% 30% -28.8%
20% -33.8% 18% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.44 · official $151.44 (match) · 896 history records