Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
87 0x879b…049b other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-7%) realized −$44 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 50% -31.3%
≤30d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 50% -31.3%
≤90d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 50% -31.3%
all 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 50% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 50% -31.3%
10% -17.9% 50% -37.8%
15% -25.8% 50% -43.8%
20% -33.1% 50% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 98¢ $60 $98 +$38 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$9 +101%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.15 · official $97.95 (match) · 4 history records