Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x879d…b501
weather · 481 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$124 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$108 · open −$199
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$288
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses118 / 350
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)468 / 481
History coverage37d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day86.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 13 History 468 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$417
14 days−$473
30 days−$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $112 $127 +$16 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $58 $66 +$8 (+14%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $201 $54 −$147 (-73%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $45 $39 −$6 (-14%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$9 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 8? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 14? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 30? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 26? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 3? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 +$46 +66%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $28 −$10 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$10 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -34%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $31 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $227 −$27 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $44 −$6 -14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 −$12 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $69 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 42°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$8 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $49 −$35 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +231%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$10 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$19 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $32 −$18 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$9 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$12 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $62 −$60 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 10 $28 −$7 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 −$13 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $37 −$36 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 +$141 +354%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$32 +237%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $34 −$33 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $106 −$11 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $22 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$4 +278%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$55 +587%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 64% −$1,164
other 26% +$1,510
crypto 8% −$414
politics 1% +$7
sports 1% −$30
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 48m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 93¢ $83 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 25¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -16.7% -24.6% 26% 24% -24.4%
≤30d 408 -11.5% -19.9% 27% 25% -11.5%
≤90d 468 -8.8% -17.5% 25% 24% -7.0%
all 468 -8.8% -17.5% 25% 24% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover86.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 24% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 21% -15.9%
15% -32.6% 20% -24.1%
20% -39.2% 18% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.56 · official $288.16 (match) · 3500 history records