Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87a1…7d4d crypto 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$197 (+3%) realized +$229 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%64W / 104L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$181
14 days−$214
30 days+$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$216
other 2% −$52
world 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.1% -4.9% 40% 40% -21.2%
≤30d 36 -5.4% -14.4% 31% 31% +4.3%
≤90d 168 -17.5% -25.4% 38% 38% -4.9%
all 168 -17.5% -25.4% 38% 38% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 38% -4.9%
10% -32.5% 37% -14.0%
15% -39.0% 37% -22.3%
20% -45.0% 37% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$30 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$229
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses64 / 104
Open positions2
Markets (closed)168 / 171
History coverage68d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $232 −$220 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$228 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$123 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $213 −$201 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $169 +$256 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $34 −$32 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $108 −$75 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $106 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$35 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $97 +$164 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $126 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $217 +$848 +392%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $106 −$83 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $117 +$203 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $136 +$141 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $105 +$298 +283%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 05 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $154 +$266 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $52 −$35 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $104 +$136 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 16 $111 −$104 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 16 $104 −$67 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 16 $52 +$57 +109%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 15 $118 −$114 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $102 +$111 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 15 $63 −$60 -96%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $232 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $53 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 4¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $213 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $210 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $169 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $34 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $34 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $108 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $116 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $104 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $6 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $6 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $31 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $6 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $6 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $262 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $97 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.65 · official $67.68 (match) · 453 history records