Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
87 0x87a3…cce4 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$13 (+20%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$3
sports 47% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +51.8% +37.3% 42% 42% +15.6%
≤30d 12 +51.8% +37.3% 42% 42% +15.6%
≤90d 15 +50.4% +36.1% 40% 40% +14.1%
all 15 +50.4% +36.1% 40% 40% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.1% 40% +14.1%
10% +23.1% 33% +3.2%
15% +11.2% 33% -6.8%
20% +0.3% 33% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +69% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage36d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +223%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +272%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +249%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $2 −$1 -53%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $5 −$3 -58%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 $0 -7%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $3 −$1 -30%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $1 +$2 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 23m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Steve Garcia 45¢ $1 29m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 39¢ $1 33m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $20 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 38h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 47h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 29¢ $3 35d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Tatsuro Taira 65¢ $2 35d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL Jeremy Stephens 21¢ $2 36d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Brady 37¢ $2 36d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Jeremy Stephens 22¢ $1 36d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 38¢ $1 36d
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) SELL Roman Kopylov 100¢ $3 36d
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Joel Álvarez 37¢ $1 36d
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Joel Álvarez 38¢ $1 36d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 60¢ $2 36d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 61¢ $2 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.95 · official $1.95 (match) · 35 history records