Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87a5…e43e tech 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 555d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-2%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate89%155W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$16
crypto 19% +$9
tech 12% −$7
world 6% +$5
politics 4% −$2
sports 3% −$36
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 82 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 1% -7.2%
all 174 -7.7% -16.5% 89% 3% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 3% -11.2%
10% -24.5% 2% -19.7%
15% -31.8% 1% -27.4%
20% -38.5% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses155 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)174 / 177
History coverage555d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $270 $269 −$1 (-0%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $63 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $170 +$6 +3%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $167 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $164 +$3 +2%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $165 $0 +0%
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $2 $0 +2%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 06 $209 +$18 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 04 $53 +$5 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $13 +$1 +9%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 01 $179 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in April? May 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 01 $6 $0 +1%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 28 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 100¢ $270 1h
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? BUY No 99¢ $119 26d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 99¢ $63 28d
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $30 28d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $5 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 34d
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $170 35d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $167 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $164 41d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 44d
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 44d
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 100¢ $165 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 45d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $1 45d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $4 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 45d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $3 45d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 45d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 46d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $3 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 46d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 46d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 47d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $3 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 47d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro BUY No 100¢ $5 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.04 · official $272.04 (match) · 386 history records