Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:40:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87a5…bd0e other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$15
politics 28% −$9
sports 11% +$29
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 119 +5.7% -4.4% 13% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 4% -9.5%
10% -13.5% 3% -18.2%
15% -21.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -29.5% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage133d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 25 $203 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $258 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $262 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $214 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $271 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $261 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $433 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $285 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 11 $208 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $231 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $194 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $222 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $282 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $434 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $273 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $284 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $256 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $268 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 11 $556 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $288 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $215 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $227 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $227 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $239 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 31h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 7d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 10d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $203 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $203 29d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 29d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $258 29d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $262 29d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $262 30d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $214 31d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $214 31d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $245 32d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $245 34d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $241 34d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $241 34d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $271 34d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $271 35d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $250 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.99 · official $32.99 (match) · 352 history records