Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
87 0x87a6…03ca other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$93 (+15%) realized +$92 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days+$123
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$17
crypto 31% +$56
sports 5% +$12
world 1% −$6
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +66.9% +51.0% 50% 50% +14.7%
≤30d 41 +28.8% +16.5% 39% 39% +1.6%
≤90d 41 +28.8% +16.5% 39% 39% +1.6%
all 41 +28.8% +16.5% 39% 39% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.5% 39% +1.6%
10% +5.4% 39% -8.2%
15% -4.8% 39% -17.0%
20% -14.1% 37% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$13 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$99 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$71 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$34 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$21 +104%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +46%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $24 +$26 +109%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $7 +$17 +231%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $57 −$57 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$37 +180%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$12 +70%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$11 -80%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$23 +1116%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +72%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$14 +114%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $4 +$8 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 27h
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 27h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 28h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 28h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 28h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 29h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 2¢ $2 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $57 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.66 · official $3.66 (match) · 71 history records