Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x87a9…4bdf other 483 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,762 (+7%) realized +$1,500 · open +$262
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate60%291W / 194L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$89
14 days+$119
30 days+$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$1,373
politics 16% +$158
weather 11% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -71.4% -74.1% 18% 9% -4.2%
≤30d 101 +25.9% +14.0% 41% 30% -4.0%
≤90d 484 +41.8% +28.3% 60% 24% -4.8%
all 485 +41.7% +28.2% 60% 24% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.2% 24% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here +16.0% 20% -14.4%
15% +4.8% 17% -22.6%
20% -5.5% 15% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$686
Realized+$1,500
Unrealized+$262
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses291 / 194
Open positions52
Markets (closed)485 / 483
History coverage112d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? Yes 11¢ 31¢ $140 $403 +$263 (+188%)
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $62 $72 +$10 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+20%)
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $27 $29 +$1 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in July 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in July 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+11%)
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in July 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+122%)
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+158%)
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+135%)
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+112%)
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+96%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+79%)
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+56%)
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 1? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 1? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Jun 23 $461 +$87 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $44 +$41 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $102 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? Jun 23 $470 +$125 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? Jun 23 $225 −$44 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $22 −$11 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $6 −$5 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in June 2026? Jun 19 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $26 −$14 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $16 −$6 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $53 +$32 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$14 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$9 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $91 +$7 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $57 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $44 +$9 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $91 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $114 +$18 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $30 −$10 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$17 +198%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $49 −$12 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $59 +$49 +84%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $33 −$9 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 40m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 43m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 43m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 43m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $22 44m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 44m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 44m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 45m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 45m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 45m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 45m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 45m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 46m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 46m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 46m
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $52 49m
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 58m
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $99 58m
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 58m
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 1h
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $18 1h
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $685.81 · official $683.23 (match) · 3344 history records