Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x87ac…8760 politics 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+0%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$16
other 41% −$12
sports 7% +$92
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -0.9% -10.3% 2% 1% -9.7%
all 132 +3.5% -6.4% 9% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 8% -9.3%
10% -15.3% 7% -18.0%
15% -23.5% 6% -25.9%
20% -31.0% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×16.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)132 / 136
History coverage122d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $454 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $218 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $222 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $232 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 23 $213 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $239 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $363 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $165 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $382 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $166 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $246 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $231 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $170 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $371 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $187 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $154 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $192 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 06 $162 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $166 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $191 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $222 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $210 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $185 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $210 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $606 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $24 4d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $40 4d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 4d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 16d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $38 17d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $38 18d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $37 19d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $37 20d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 27d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $34 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $34 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 28d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 29d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $222 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.12 · official $120.12 (match) · 375 history records