Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
87 0x87ac…74a9 crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$32 (+4%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate70%69W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$38
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$44
sports 14% +$58
other 8% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +23.7% +11.9% 79% 68% +1.4%
≤30d 40 +41.4% +28.0% 78% 70% +13.1%
≤90d 99 +10.8% +0.3% 70% 51% -5.2%
all 99 +10.8% +0.3% 70% 51% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 51% -5.2%
10% -9.3% 38% -14.3%
15% -18.1% 28% -22.6%
20% -26.1% 22% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses69 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage69d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$6 +121%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$8 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$17 +325%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$9 +140%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +121%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +238%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +246%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Draw at halftime? May 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $5 11h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $14 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 191 history records