Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
87 0x87af…08e8 sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$490 (+14%) realized +$502 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$292
7 days+$334
14 days+$624
30 days+$568
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$817
other 24% −$98
crypto 9% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +44.4% +30.7% 24% 24% +17.1%
≤30d 44 +36.7% +23.7% 32% 32% +10.5%
≤90d 46 +34.9% +22.1% 33% 33% +5.3%
all 46 +34.9% +22.1% 33% 33% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.1% 33% +5.3%
10% +10.4% 33% -4.7%
15% -0.3% 33% -13.9%
20% -10.0% 33% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$58 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$502
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 52
History coverage36d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $204 $198 −$6 (-3%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $95 $90 −$5 (-6%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $126 −$124 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $79 −$77 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $28 −$17 -60%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 +$53 +101%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $107 +$661 +618%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$30 +98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 −$42 -46%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$230 +1494%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $130 −$130 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $102 +$140 +137%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $117 +$291 +250%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $83 −$81 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $166 −$163 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 26 $129 −$125 -97%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-2.5) vs Altmaier (+2.5) May 26 $30 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 26 $21 +$23 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka May 26 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 26 $62 +$134 +216%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $76 +$63 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 25 $77 −$76 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $91 +$84 +92%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $46 +$99 +216%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $23 +$183 +785%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $100 +$123 +124%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $47 +$53 +114%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 21 $91 +$84 +93%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $189 −$186 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $68 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $98 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $141 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $126 12h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will United State BUY 31¢ $26 28h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will United State BUY 31¢ $102 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $79 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $11 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $28 41h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $77 43h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada vs. Qat BUY 1¢ $8 47h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada vs. Qat BUY 1¢ $8 47h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Mexico win on BUY 22¢ $77 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $53 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 63¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $22 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 45¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $85 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $48 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $92 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $30 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $57 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.08 · official $317.08 (match) · 86 history records