Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x87af…bc41 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$78 (+14%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$70
sports 42% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +13.1% +2.3% 59% 59% +3.7%
≤30d 17 +13.1% +2.3% 59% 59% +3.7%
≤90d 17 +13.1% +2.3% 59% 59% +3.7%
all 17 +13.1% +2.3% 59% 59% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 59% +3.7%
10% -7.5% 47% -6.3%
15% -16.4% 41% -15.3%
20% -24.6% 35% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 +$29 +55%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$7 +16%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$13 +51%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 −$4 -4%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$10 -65%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$12 -47%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $67 +$7 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$6 -60%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$16 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$18 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $48 −$8 -17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 +$23 +89%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 +$6 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$8 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $46 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $16 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $38 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $1 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $12 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $42 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 54¢ $52 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $14 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $62 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records