Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x87af…fb27 politics 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$2
other 34% −$1
tech 15% $0
culture 9% −$1
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage11d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $228 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $235 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $237 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $125 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $113 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $231 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $238 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $226 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $239 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 100¢ $103 39m
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY No 100¢ $100 40m
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $228 1h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $228 4h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $235 4h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $235 5h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 5h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $106 4d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $128 4d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $128 4d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $68 4d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $68 4d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $136 4d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $130 4d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $130 4d
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 5d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $220 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $117 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $117 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $235 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $111 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $111 6d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $237 6d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $237 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $205 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $205 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $237 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $237 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $125 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.71 · official $201.71 (match) · 49 history records