Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:30:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87b1…5032 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$9
other 30% +$1
politics 6% +$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 0% -15.5%
≤30d 16 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 12% -10.9%
≤90d 16 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 12% -10.9%
all 37 +1.1% -8.5% 43% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 5% -10.2%
10% -17.3% 3% -18.8%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.7%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage462d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $5 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 +$3 +9%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $45 −$10 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $16 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $82 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $33 +$5 +16%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $70 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $33 −$2 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $71 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $41 −$7 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 16 $13 $0 -1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Randy Fine win by 10-15%? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in March? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $11 +$1 +4%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 15 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $35 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $32 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $35 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $45 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $8 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $29 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $3 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $3 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $36 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $13 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $12 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $35 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $20 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.92 · official $34.48 (match) · 128 history records