Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:02:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87b1…deba other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,800 (-16%) realized −$4,045 · open +$245
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,536per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$1,909now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$4,676
crypto 2% −$425
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -27.8% -34.7% 17% 17% -21.3%
≤30d 12 -27.8% -34.7% 17% 17% -21.3%
≤90d 12 -27.8% -34.7% 17% 17% -21.3%
all 12 -27.8% -34.7% 17% 17% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.7% 17% -21.3%
10% -40.9% 17% -28.9%
15% ← realistic here -46.6% 17% -35.7%
20% -51.8% 17% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,386 vs −$1,612 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,909
Realized−$4,045
Unrealized+$245
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1,536
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? No 14¢ 14¢ $1,040 $1,003 −$37 (-4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 47¢ 69¢ $594 $877 +$282 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,822 −$3,822 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $163 −$159 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $800 −$800 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,948 −$2,506 -85%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $495 −$425 -86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3,019 +$4,981 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,474 −$1,364 -93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,033 −$1,666 -82%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,217 −$2,217 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,187 +$5,790 +488%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $999 −$974 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,184 −$2,184 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 25m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $1,067 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $533 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $70 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $560 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $9 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $19 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $5 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $2 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $1 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $55 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $11 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $9 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $2 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $1 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $28 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $7 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $2 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $5 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $5 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $1 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $5 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $5 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $737 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $18 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $1 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $2 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $1 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $9 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,909.17 · official $1,909.30 (match) · 187 history records