Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x87b2…bdf0 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$293 (-16%) realized −$365 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$1,442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$202
sports 35% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$61 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,442
Realized−$365
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage10d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $500 $519 +$19 (+4%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 27¢ 28¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 99¢ $300 $379 +$79 (+26%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $50 $18 −$32 (-63%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 27¢ $513 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $516 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 9d
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) BUY Qatar 1¢ $103 9d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 78¢ $303 9d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 11¢ $10 9d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $52 9d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 9d
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 38¢ $154 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,442.22 · official $1,443.22 (match) · 12 history records