Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87b6…4aba sports 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,019 (-2%) realized −$9,994 · open −$1,025
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%54W / 76L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,099per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$700est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,564
7 days−$9,601
14 days−$9,601
30 days−$9,601
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$14,974
other 5% +$2,930
crypto 0% −$134
world 0% −$251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -28.8% -35.6% 32% 30% -28.9%
≤30d 60 -28.8% -35.6% 32% 30% -28.9%
≤90d 65 -30.3% -37.0% 32% 31% -37.2%
all 130 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 41% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 41% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 38% -19.7%
15% -34.6% 36% -27.5%
20% -41.0% 34% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$5,000) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,343 vs −$3,236 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$1,239
Realized−$9,994
Unrealized−$1,025
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses54 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$700
Open positions5
Markets (closed)130 / 135
History coverage189d
Avg bet$4,099
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $500 $528 +$28 (+6%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 38¢ $678 $428 −$250 (-37%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 24¢ $633 $272 −$361 (-57%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $244 $11 −$233 (-95%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Under 45¢ 0¢ $209 $0 −$209 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $578 −$251 -44%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $277 +$499 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,167 +$218 +19%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $794 −$520 -65%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $475 −$421 -89%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $254 −$250 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $547 −$482 -88%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $205 −$195 -95%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $249 −$127 -51%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $608 −$600 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,487 +$587 +40%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $301 −$255 -85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $490 +$16 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $518 −$353 -68%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $231 −$227 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $527 −$520 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $244 −$244 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $120 +$59 +49%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,080 −$1,002 -93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $742 −$386 -52%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1,013 +$863 +85%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,150 −$1,133 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $790 +$209 +26%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $580 +$419 +72%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $840 −$840 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $270 −$270 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $40 +$28 +69%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $855 +$643 +75%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $560 −$560 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $230 −$5 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $870 −$11 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $693 −$693 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $968 −$950 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $440 −$362 -82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $920 −$134 -15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $960 −$960 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $817 −$817 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $687 −$687 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $510 +$490 +96%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $517 −$517 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,074 +$1,173 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,064 −$1,064 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $483 +$706 +146%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,018 −$360 -35%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $487 −$475 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,938 +$559 +29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,614 −$885 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 15m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $326 24m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2 37m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $193 37m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $14 38m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $776 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $887 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $251 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $578 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $641 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $686 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $275 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $54 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $254 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $557 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $277 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 5¢ $65 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $497 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) SELL Uruguay 1¢ $10 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $122 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $475 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $794 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $8 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $199 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,239.05 · official $1,239.05 (match) · 559 history records