Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87c1…41fc politics 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,115 (-0%) realized −$1,111 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%28W / 136L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,479per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$24
14 days−$45
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$163
politics 36% −$104
sports 13% −$1,196
world 2% −$4
culture 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 46 -2.5% -11.8% 11% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 113 -5.5% -14.5% 5% 2% -10.4%
all 164 +1.4% -8.3% 17% 13% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 13% -9.9%
10% -17.1% 13% -18.6%
15% -25.1% 10% -26.4%
20% -32.4% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,856) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$20 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$1,111
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses28 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)164 / 166
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,479
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $164 $164 −$0 (-0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 38¢ $42 $37 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $8,948 −$10 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $1,856 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 15 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $7,989 −$8 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $150 +$2 +2%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4,633 −$5 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 10 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,301 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,701 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $584 −$1 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,114 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $723 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $48 +$59 +124%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $656 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $689 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $69 −$69 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,692 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $787 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $77 +$50 +65%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $667 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $690 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $4,553 −$5 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $558 −$1 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $211 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $50 −$2 -3%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 21 $207 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $505 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $164 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $505 3h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $239 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $240 3d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $871 3d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $872 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $314 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $315 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $604 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $605 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $748 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $749 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $574 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $575 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $763 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $764 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $552 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $553 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $780 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $781 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $785 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $786 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $659 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $660 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $744 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $745 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $488 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $489 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $637 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.62 · official $201.62 (match) · 563 history records