Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
87 0x87c2…73ab crypto 2107 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$561 (+1%) realized +$553 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate69%1364W / 626L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$375
7 days+$675
14 days+$784
30 days+$944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 421 +20.1% +8.6% 79% 79% +10.6%
≤30d 1080 +8.9% -1.5% 72% 72% +5.5%
≤90d 1990 +2.8% -7.0% 69% 68% -7.4%
all 1990 +2.8% -7.0% 69% 68% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 68% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 68% -16.3%
15% -24.0% 61% -24.4%
20% -31.4% 31% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$27 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$553
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1364 / 626
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1990 / 2107
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1990 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 67¢ 84¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$16 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $88 +$44 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $130 +$84 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $37 +$19 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $222 +$102 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $84 −$82 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $39 +$14 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $122 +$56 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $124 +$47 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$32 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $130 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $49 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $222 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $84 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $39 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $16 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.87 · official $22.63 · 3500 history records