Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87c4…ea03 other 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 247L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$21
14 days−$31
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$41
sports 25% −$24
politics 10% −$14
crypto 6% −$6
economics 6% −$5
culture 5% −$6
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 186 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 263 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)263 / 263
History coverage134d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 263 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $183 −$1 -1%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $802 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $700 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $386 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $411 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $430 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $776 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $333 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $179 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $390 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $118 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $319 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $686 −$3 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $132 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $504 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $719 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $299 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $52 7h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $52 9h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 11h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $52 12h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 13h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 18h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 20h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 22h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 23h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 25h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 29h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 30h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 39h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 44h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 46h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1389 history records