Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87c5…1acd crypto 742 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$692 (-6%) realized −$686 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate35%259W / 481L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$37
14 days−$125
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$425
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.1% -9.6% 41% 22% -12.2%
≤30d 363 -1.5% -10.9% 34% 15% -12.6%
≤90d 740 -0.6% -10.1% 35% 22% -12.9%
all 740 -0.6% -10.1% 35% 22% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 22% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 15% -21.2%
15% -26.5% 8% -28.8%
20% -33.7% 3% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$686
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses259 / 481
Open positions2
Markets (closed)740 / 742
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 740 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 57¢ 98¢ $11 $20 +$8 (+71%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 33¢ 2¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 04 $54 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $33 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 04 $43 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $53 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $54 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 04 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.95 · official $24.95 (match) · 3500 history records