Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
87 0x87c6…6623 sports 13 markets active 17h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$38 (+61%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$16
other 21% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+78.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +113.5% +93.2% 33% 33% +56.4%
≤30d 13 +97.1% +78.3% 31% 31% +44.1%
≤90d 13 +97.1% +78.3% 31% 31% +44.1%
all 13 +97.1% +78.3% 31% 31% +44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +78.3% 31% +44.1%
10% +61.2% 31% +30.3%
15% +45.7% 31% +17.8%
20% +31.4% 31% +6.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +97% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +127% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$5 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$21 +409%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$30 +980%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$13 +420%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +308%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $26 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 18h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $21 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 7d
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Washington Mystics 5¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records