Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
87 0x87ce…7fe3 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$51 (+8%) realized +$79 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%22W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$10
other 29% −$9
sports 26% +$21
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +7.0% -3.2% 40% 40% +8.2%
≤30d 48 +5.2% -4.8% 42% 40% -3.5%
≤90d 50 +5.2% -4.9% 44% 38% -3.7%
all 50 +5.2% -4.9% 44% 38% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 38% -3.7%
10% -14.0% 38% -12.9%
15% -22.3% 34% -21.3%
20% -29.9% 24% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses22 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)50 / 57
History coverage63d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Yes 28¢ 24¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 12¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-46%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $2 +$3 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$14 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$77 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$23 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +112%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 +$7 +711%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$11 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$7 +95%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +178%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 30 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 30 $15 +$5 +35%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5 May 30 $10 −$1 -8%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 May 30 $49 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $3 +$4 +117%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $24 +$22 +91%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 30 $8 −$1 -6%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 May 30 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $18 +$8 +43%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 19 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $19 1h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $15 1h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $15 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $50 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $93 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $3 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $12 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.18 · official $81.19 (match) · 134 history records