Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:55:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87cf…aa54 crypto 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-8%) realized −$22 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%48W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$6
14 days−$17
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$19
sports 30% +$8
weather 12% −$14
other 11% −$12
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +9.9% -0.6% 47% 45% -12.1%
≤30d 135 -10.3% -18.8% 36% 33% -17.0%
≤90d 135 -10.3% -18.8% 36% 33% -17.0%
all 135 -10.3% -18.8% 36% 33% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 33% -17.0%
10% -26.6% 30% -24.9%
15% -33.7% 27% -32.2%
20% -40.2% 24% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses48 / 87
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Yes 17¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$16 +314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -22%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +75%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Derry City FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +30%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +69%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? SELL No $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 13¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? BUY No $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes $1 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $5 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $22 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes $1 41h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs SELL Metizport 100¢ $5 42h
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs SELL aimclub 100¢ $6 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes $0 42h
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY aimclub 88¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.25 · official $15.25 · 223 history records