Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

87 0x87d0…455c other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$465 (+11%) realized +$347 · open +$118

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate41%9W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$183per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$30est.

Kalshi-fit54%portable

Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$43

7 days−$23

14 days+$249

30 days−$311

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-5.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+4.5%	-5.4%	30%	20%	-20.6%
≤30d	16	+3.4%	-6.4%	25%	19%	-35.0%
≤90d	22	+5.0%	-5.0%	41%	36%	+0.9%
all	22	+5.0%	-5.0%	41%	36%	+0.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.0%	36%	+0.9%
10%	-14.1%	27%	-8.7%
15%	-22.4%	23%	-17.5%
20%	-30.0%	14%	-25.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -40% → late +50% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$153 vs −$72 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.46 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage

Net worth$618

Realized+$347

Unrealized+$118

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses9 / 13

Est. fees paid−$30

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage58d

Avg bet$183

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	94¢	95¢	$500	$501	+$1 (+0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	0¢	81¢	$0	$116	+$116 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$100	+$10	+10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$5	+$33	+650%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$9	+86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$103	+$522	+510%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$202	−$200	-99%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$51	−$50	-98%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 30	$304	−$300	-99%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 27	$10	−$10	-97%
Thunder vs. Spurs	May 25	$255	−$250	-98%
Thunder vs. Spurs	May 23	$389	+$152	+39%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 21	$805	+$226	+28%
Thunder vs. Lakers	May 10	$505	+$241	+48%
Lakers vs. Thunder	May 06	$422	+$78	+18%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Apr 26	$56	−$56	-100%
Thunder vs. Suns	Apr 26	$498	+$106	+21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	26h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on	BUY No	94¢	$501	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	13¢	$5	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	37¢	$10	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	45¢	$10	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	53¢	$10	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	54¢	$10	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	12¢	$5	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	45¢	$10	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	40¢	$10	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	40¢	$10	3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	25¢	$10	3d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	16¢	$103	8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	61¢	$202	9d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	42¢	$51	13d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	58¢	$304	23d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Spurs	3¢	$10	26d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	27¢	$51	28d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	43¢	$203	28d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	88¢	$301	30d
Thunder vs. Spurs	BUY Thunder	44¢	$88	30d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	90¢	$401	32d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	68¢	$404	32d
Thunder vs. Lakers	BUY Thunder	67¢	$505	43d
Lakers vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	84¢	$153	47d
Lakers vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	84¢	$26	47d
Lakers vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	84¢	$16	47d
Lakers vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	84¢	$25	47d
Lakers vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	84¢	$38	47d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.63 · official $617.64 (match) · 47 history records