Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87d1…b9be politics 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,490 (-1%) realized −$1,492 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate31%39W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,009per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$65
other 28% −$31
sports 18% −$1,402
world 6% +$9
culture 2% −$3
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$10
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 125 -1.5% -10.9% 31% 13% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 13% -10.6%
10% -19.4% 12% -19.2%
15% -27.2% 10% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,313) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$24 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$654
Realized−$1,492
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses39 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage155d
Avg bet$1,009
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $651 $654 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 27 $217 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $252 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $299 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $258 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $1,023 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $3,003 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,778 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,296 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,090 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 02 $539 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $805 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $717 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $772 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $570 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $4,632 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,307 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 04 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $544 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $369 +$1 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $3,078 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $5,138 −$5 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,311 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,302 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3,510 −$2 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,313 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,313 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,323 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2,329 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $4,500 −$5 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,312 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,322 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $3,762 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,591 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $409 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $217 3h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $409 3h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $217 6h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $365 6h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $365 9h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $251 25h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $252 27h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $271 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $272 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $384 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $384 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $299 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $299 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $258 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $258 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $651 11d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,214 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,216 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,022 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,023 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,123 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,124 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,101 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,103 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,234 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,235 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,056 16d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,058 16d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,053 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $653.55 · official $653.55 (match) · 407 history records