Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x87d2…94a9 other 23 markets active 6d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$585 (-23%) realized +$46 · open −$631
Gross ROI / mkt +102% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +83% what you keep after slip
Net edge+83%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$904now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$94
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$703
sports 14% +$188
world 2% −$36
tech 2% −$49
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+83.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.8% +0.3% 50% 50% -42.1%
≤30d 16 +147.4% +123.9% 69% 56% +0.3%
≤90d 20 +102.2% +83.0% 55% 45% -4.4%
all 20 +102.2% +83.0% 55% 45% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +83.0% 45% -4.4%
10% +65.5% 45% -13.5%
15% +49.5% 40% -21.9%
20% +34.8% 35% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +102% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +225% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$40 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$904
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$631
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage35d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $820 −$180 (-18%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $83 −$417 (-83%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 25¢ $35 $1 −$34 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $12 +$23 +187%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$45 -89%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $76 +$68 +89%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$23 -45%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$55 +73%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$86 +170%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $152 −$112 -73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$36 -71%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $151 +$66 +43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$9 +34%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 21 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 20 $5 −$1 -14%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? May 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $144 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $28 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $76 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $10 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 8d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $137 9d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 9d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 9d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 9d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 9d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 9d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $34 9d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $904.28 · official $904.28 (match) · 56 history records