trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +10.8% | +0.3% | 50% | 50% | -42.1% |
| ≤30d | 16 | +147.4% | +123.9% | 69% | 56% | +0.3% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +102.2% | +83.0% | 55% | 45% | -4.4% |
| all | 20 | +102.2% | +83.0% | 55% | 45% | -4.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +83.0% | 45% | -4.4% |
| 10% | +65.5% | 45% | -13.5% |
| 15% | +49.5% | 40% | -21.9% |
| 20% | +34.8% | 35% | -29.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $1,000 | $820 | −$180 (-18%) |
| Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $83 | −$417 (-83%) |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $35 | $1 | −$34 (-98%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Jun 22 | $12 | +$23 | +187% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $103 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $51 | +$29 | +57% |
| Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $51 | −$45 | -89% |
| Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $76 | +$68 | +89% |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $51 | −$23 | -45% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $76 | +$55 | +73% |
| Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $10 | +$4 | +43% |
| Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $51 | +$47 | +93% |
| Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $51 | +$86 | +170% |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $152 | −$112 | -73% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $51 | −$36 | -71% |
| Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $151 | +$66 | +43% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $26 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $26 | +$9 | +34% |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | May 21 | $18 | −$18 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET | May 20 | $5 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? | May 15 | $15 | −$15 | -97% |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? | May 15 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |