Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

87
0x87d3…55fc
sports · 348 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$565 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$546 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$75
Realized−$546
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses123 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions12
Markets (closed)336 / 348
History coverage67d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day47.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 12 History 336 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$53
14 days−$17
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $53 +$22 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $50 −$38 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $76 +$15 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Choi Eun-seok win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Powerball jackpot hit $1 billion by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 1480-1519 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1920-1999 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1680-1759 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $51 −$40 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $105 +$81 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $97 −$60 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $6 −$5 -90%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $12 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Drama eSports vs Basement Bobs (BO3) - Exort Series Co May 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will Malachy Steenson win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ian Noel Smyth win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ray McAdam win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs Oldboys (BO3) - Exort Series Contenders Stage May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 21 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 20 $1 $0 -8%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $30 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: MISA (-1.5) vs BIG Academy (+1.5) May 16 $2 $0 +12%
Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Magic - Game 1 Winner May 16 $19 +$10 +53%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) May 15 $1 $0 +1%
LoL: Myth Esports vs The Bandits - Game 1 Winner May 15 $143 +$16 +11%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Dark Phoenix (BO3) - BetBoom R May 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of thei May 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federa May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Fede May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will San Marino be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April? May 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in April? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 1.0% in April? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in April? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in May 2026? May 09 $1 −$1 -55%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europ May 09 $2 $0 -2%
Will more than 350 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026 May 08 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Alzon - Map 1 Winner May 08 $13 +$3 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% −$93
other 7% −$126
weather 5% −$275
world 1% −$47
politics 0% −$8
crypto 0% −$3
economics 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $2 14m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 17m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 18m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 29m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes $1 38m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 40m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 42m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 43m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -37.3% -43.3% 43% 29% -24.0%
≤30d 40 -52.2% -56.8% 30% 15% -15.8%
≤90d 336 -26.1% -33.1% 37% 21% -13.9%
all 336 -26.1% -33.1% 37% 21% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.1% 21% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -39.5% 14% -22.2%
15% -45.4% 10% -29.7%
20% -50.7% 7% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.25 · official $87.92 · 3500 history records