Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87d3…a656 world 33 markets active 3d ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1
other 18% −$2
politics 16% $0
sports 16% $0
crypto 6% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.1% -12.3% 80% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 12 -1.1% -10.6% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 -1.1% -10.6% 67% 0% -9.4%
all 32 -0.7% -10.1% 34% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage308d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 66¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $8 −$2 -30%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $3 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $33 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 29 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $17 −$1 -8%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $53 $0 -1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 13 $0 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC August 5-11? Aug 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $36 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $44 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $41 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $36 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $8 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records