Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87d6…551a sports 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$193 (-5%) realized −$214 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%63W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$152
30 days−$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$130
other 15% −$140
politics 0% +$25
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -29.4% -36.1% 20% 20% -26.5%
≤30d 95 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 37% -27.6%
≤90d 153 -9.4% -18.0% 41% 40% -15.4%
all 153 -9.4% -18.0% 41% 40% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 40% -15.4%
10% -25.9% 39% -23.5%
15% -33.0% 38% -30.9%
20% -39.6% 31% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$214
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses63 / 90
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions17
Markets (closed)153 / 181
History coverage58d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+5%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 62¢ $55 $48 −$7 (-13%)
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 26¢ 92¢ $11 $39 +$28 (+256%)
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+8%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 60¢ 62¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 35¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-15%)
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Jordan Pickford record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 25¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Florian Wirtz record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+165%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Raphinha record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 25 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $60 −$19 -32%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $16 +$15 +93%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Vinicius Jr. score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$6 -12%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -87%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $49 −$2 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $27 −$26 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 −$2 -24%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Cole Palmer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Phil Foden score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Robert Lewandowski score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -83%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 03 $78 −$77 -99%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $35 −$8 -23%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $35 +$15 +44%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $45 −$44 -98%
Anna Kalinskaya vs. Maja Chwalinska: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $18 −$18 -98%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $22 +$10 +44%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $10 +$11 +105%
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5) Jun 01 $13 +$8 +62%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $2 +$8 +388%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $56 −$31 -56%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $9 −$1 -8%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Jodar (+1.5) Jun 01 $34 −$33 -98%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $33 −$33 -99%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $33 +$17 +50%
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $21 +$10 +46%
Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $13 +$9 +65%
Set Handicap: Chwalinska (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 01 $13 −$13 -99%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5) Jun 01 $27 −$26 -98%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Trent Alexander-Arnold score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 01 $6 −$6 -97%
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Kostyuk (+1.5) May 31 $16 +$15 +90%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 31 $6 −$1 -13%
Jesper de Jong vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $20 +$10 +51%
Jaime Faria vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 31 $14 +$7 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $3 1h
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $5 1h
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 1h
Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 1h
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 25¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a dr BUY 2¢ $3 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia BUY 4¢ $2 2h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay vs. Spa BUY 2¢ $3 2h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $6 2h
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $14 2h
Will Jordan Pickford record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 15¢ $4 25h
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 29¢ $12 25h
Will Florian Wirtz record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 10¢ $1 25h
Will Raphinha record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 25¢ $10 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 60¢ $27 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a d BUY 3¢ $3 25h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 25¢ $41 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a dra BUY 1¢ $1 25h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Japan vs. Swede BUY 1¢ $1 25h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands BUY 2¢ $1 25h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Japan vs. Swede BUY 1¢ $2 25h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $45 25h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $55 25h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $36 26h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06 BUY 1¢ $1 27h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 29¢ $4 37h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 26¢ $11 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.73 · official $283.53 · 343 history records