Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:14:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87d6…d1e7 world 327 markets active 0h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,411 (+5%) realized +$6,817 · open −$406
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate64%203W / 112L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$377per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days−$235
14 days+$5,148
30 days+$5,187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$7,119
other 19% +$258
sports 13% +$934
crypto 12% +$436
politics 11% −$479
economics 5% +$69
culture 3% −$207
tech 3% −$1,451
finance 2% +$103
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 28% -11.6%
≤30d 60 -8.3% -17.0% 58% 23% +4.6%
≤90d 154 -15.5% -23.6% 57% 16% -2.6%
all 315 -2.0% -11.3% 64% 13% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 13% -4.0%
10% -19.8% 10% -13.2%
15% -27.6% 9% -21.6%
20% -34.7% 8% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$74 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$702
Realized+$6,817
Unrealized−$406
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses203 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions12
Markets (closed)315 / 327
History coverage163d
Avg bet$377
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $566 $329 −$237 (-42%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $99 $125 +$26 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 14¢ 20¢ $63 $88 +$25 (+39%)
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Iran full airspace closure by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+4%)
No one announced as next James Bond? No 8¢ 9¢ $33 $36 +$4 (+11%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $13 −$9 (-41%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $96 $7 −$89 (-93%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $62 $3 −$59 (-95%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-62%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $55 $2 −$53 (-96%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Honer vs Akli Jun 28 $52 −$45 -88%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 28 $56 +$35 +62%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? Jun 28 $63 +$90 +142%
Will Panama be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FI Jun 28 $118 −$8 -7%
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F Jun 28 $226 +$37 +16%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conferenc Jun 26 $926 −$45 -5%
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Jerusalem" during Faith & Freedom Coalitio Jun 26 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 22 above $285? Jun 26 $179 −$179 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$13 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$26 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$36 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$46 +44%
MLP New York: Texas Ranchers vs Las Vegas Night Owls Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,847 +$1,264 +68%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,318 +$518 +39%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,197 +$103 +5%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Pennsylvania events? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1,016 −$995 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $826 −$73 -9%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $382 −$373 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $397 −$387 -98%
Will Trump say "Golf" this week? Jun 23 $51 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 23? Jun 23 $114 −$9 -8%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 23? Jun 23 $147 −$144 -98%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $138 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $6,575 +$5,079 +77%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $83 −$49 -59%
Will Trump say "Versailles" during G7 events? Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $631 +$359 +57%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $187 +$8 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Trump announce Pete Hoekstra as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $38 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $6 +$16 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $3,322 +$34 +1%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $781 +$76 +10%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY No 8¢ $34 5m
Set 1 Winner: Honer vs Akli SELL Akli 12¢ $3 1h
Set 1 Winner: Honer vs Akli SELL Akli 12¢ $3 1h
Set 1 Winner: Honer vs Akli BUY Akli 94¢ $52 1h
Iran full airspace closure by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 4h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $45 7h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $45 7h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 29¢ $33 8h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 19¢ $10 16h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $13 16h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $107 18h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 18h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 18h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 18h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 18h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 18h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 18h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL No 10¢ $0 18h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL No 9¢ $0 18h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL No 9¢ $0 18h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL No 9¢ $0 18h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL No 10¢ $8 18h
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $17 19h
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 21h
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 22h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 20¢ $12 26h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 20¢ $12 27h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL No 26¢ $5 29h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? SELL No 22¢ $4 29h
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? BUY No 15¢ $6 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $702.22 · official $698.37 (match) · 2511 history records