Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x87d8…7197 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$266 (+0%) realized +$266 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate90%28W / 3L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$2,053per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$260
7 days+$250
14 days+$250
30 days+$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$31
economics 27% +$6
other 18% +$221
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.6% -5.4% 73% 9% -9.1%
≤30d 17 +4.3% -5.7% 82% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 20 +4.2% -5.7% 85% 10% -9.1%
all 31 +3.2% -6.6% 90% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 6% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 3% -17.8%
15% -23.7% 3% -25.8%
20% -31.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$4,274) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×9.51 per $1 lost it wins $9.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses28 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage190d
Avg bet$2,053
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $8,591 +$34 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $138 +$62 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $371 +$2 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,498 +$102 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $892 +$8 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,659 +$41 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,388 +$15 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $8,571 +$15 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $8,602 −$10 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $8,642 −$10 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $8,654 −$10 -0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29? May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M May 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 18? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? May 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 27 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral elec Apr 19 $1 $0 +8%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Apr 19 $3 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $200 end of February? Mar 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? Mar 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 12 $10 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Feb 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? Feb 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 21? Dec 21 $4,274 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 21? Dec 21 $3,319 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on December 9? Dec 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 9? Dec 21 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $228 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $999 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $999 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $999 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.68 · official $7.68 (match) · 179 history records