Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:43:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x87db…78cc sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,903 (+34%) realized +$1,903 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,570
7 days+$84
14 days+$98
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$1,916
crypto 44% −$1,996
other 4% +$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 50% -8.2%
≤30d 24 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 54% -7.9%
≤90d 24 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 54% -7.9%
all 24 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 54% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 54% -7.9%
10% -19.3% 46% -16.8%
15% -27.1% 42% -24.8%
20% -34.2% 29% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$219 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,903
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage9d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $620 −$620 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $106 +$56 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $108 +$83 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $77 +$25 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $69 −$65 -94%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $155 −$155 -100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $103 −$75 -73%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $102 +$243 +238%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $498 +$434 +87%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $498 +$228 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $598 +$947 +158%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $299 +$112 +37%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $499 +$296 +59%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $8 −$2 -30%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $30 +$12 +41%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $321 +$62 +19%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $11 +$12 +105%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $9 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1,025 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $162 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $42 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 4¢ $28 9h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 80¢ $346 9h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $155 11h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 11h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 11h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $498 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records