Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
87 0x87dd…fd7e other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$9 (+23%) realized +$1 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +116% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +96% what you keep after slip
Net edge+96%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$32
tech 27% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+95.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +229.1% +197.7% 100% 100% +197.7%
≤30d 2 +116.5% +95.9% 100% 50% +96.4%
≤90d 2 +116.5% +95.9% 100% 50% +96.4%
all 2 +116.5% +95.9% 100% 50% +96.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +95.9% 50% +96.4%
10% +77.1% 50% +77.6%
15% +60.0% 50% +60.4%
20% +44.3% 50% +44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +117% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +116% · $-wt +117% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage17d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $11 +$24 +229%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 16d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 81¢ $11 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 72¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.76 · official $24.76 (match) · 20 history records