Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:56:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87df…a242 other 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 1288d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,928 (-38%) realized −$2,713 · open −$215
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%20W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$755now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$83
politics 33% −$2,026
sports 13% +$46
crypto 2% +$29
culture 1% −$60
world 1% −$55
tech 1% −$40
economics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 44% -4.0%
≤30d 9 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 44% -4.0%
≤90d 9 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 44% -4.0%
all 76 -28.4% -35.2% 26% 26% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 26% -33.8%
10% -41.4% 25% -40.1%
15% -47.1% 24% -45.9%
20% -52.3% 22% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$84 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1288d coverage
Net worth$755
Realized−$2,713
Unrealized−$215
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses20 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)76 / 87
History coverage1288d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 25¢ 15¢ $320 $194 −$126 (-39%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 19¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 23 $140 −$94 -67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$46 +46%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $152 +$83 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Feb 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SEED Latam win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Feb 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Feb 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
F1 Singapore GP: Hadjar vs. Tsunoda Feb 03 $70 −$70 -100%
F1 Singapore GP: Hamilton vs. Leclerc Feb 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship Feb 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $220 and $230 on September 15? Feb 03 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Everton end in a draw? Feb 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Feb 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Feb 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? Feb 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Feb 03 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Ferrari finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? Feb 03 $500 −$500 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Feb 03 $15 +$14 +95%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December? Jan 26 $75 +$67 +89%
Nuggets vs. Bucks Jan 26 $50 +$97 +194%
Bucks vs. 76ers Jan 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Pacers vs. Hawks Jan 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jan 23 $25 +$5 +21%
Celtics vs. Nets Jan 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 16? Dec 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 16 $20 +$136 +680%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Dec 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Dec 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Aave win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 11 $100 +$79 +79%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Nov 11 $700 +$944 +135%
F1 Singapore GP: Leclerc vs. Verstappen Oct 10 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in September? Oct 03 $50 +$66 +133%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $81 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $46 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 27h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $50 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 51¢ $30 133d
Bucks vs. Magic BUY Bucks 20¢ $15 133d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $40 133d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL No 37¢ $29 140d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 140d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 148d
Bucks vs. 76ers BUY Bucks 25¢ $10 148d
Pacers vs. Hawks BUY Pacers 35¢ $15 148d
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? SELL No 74¢ $30 150d
Celtics vs. Nets BUY Nets 24¢ $20 150d
Nuggets vs. Bucks BUY Nuggets 34¢ $50 150d
Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 25¢ $300 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $755.30 · official $755.32 (match) · 308 history records