trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -45.3% | -50.5% | 20% | 20% | -29.0% |
| all | 15 | -45.3% | -50.5% | 20% | 20% | -29.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -50.5% | 20% | -29.0% |
| 10% | -55.3% | 20% | -35.8% |
| 15% | -59.6% | 7% | -42.0% |
| 20% | -63.6% | 0% | -47.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 79¢ | $588 | $2,381 | +$1,793 (+305%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | No | 24¢ | 60¢ | $205 | $526 | +$321 (+157%) |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | Yes | 23¢ | 3¢ | $69 | $9 | −$60 (-87%) |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | Yes | 49¢ | 5¢ | $71 | $7 | −$64 (-91%) |
| Will any xAI Grok model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam? | Yes | 11¢ | 15¢ | $2 | $3 | +$1 (+41%) |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | Yes | 17¢ | 2¢ | $22 | $2 | −$20 (-90%) |
| Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 1¢ | $10 | $1 | −$9 (-93%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET | May 18 | $17 | −$17 | -98% |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E | May 18 | $42 | −$25 | -59% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Apr 11 | $16 | +$6 | +40% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 11 | $40 | +$9 | +23% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | Apr 11 | $7 | −$2 | -31% |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 11 | $4 | −$3 | -78% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by Dece | Apr 08 | $4 | $0 | -8% |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, | Apr 08 | $6 | −$4 | -70% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Apr 08 | $8 | −$5 | -68% |
| Will Tisza win 100–109 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in thi | Apr 06 | $8 | −$3 | -43% |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | Apr 02 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | Apr 02 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 02 | $45 | +$11 | +25% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 25? | Mar 25 | $35 | −$13 | -38% |