Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87e8…3513 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$3
other 22% −$9
politics 15% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.0% -12.2% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 12 -7.0% -15.9% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 12 -7.0% -15.9% 17% 0% -10.0%
all 45 -4.9% -13.9% 36% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -11.0%
10% -22.2% 0% -19.5%
15% -29.7% 0% -27.3%
20% -36.6% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage447d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 32¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $43 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $9 −$1 -17%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $19 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $90 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $53 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $61 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $81 $0 +0%
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday? Jun 23 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 28 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 24 $12 −$9 -69%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 09 $12 $0 -1%
Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 07 $4 $0 -3%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 07 $13 $0 -1%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $2 $0 -3%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $45 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $47 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $2 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $0 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $31 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $12 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $41 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.96 · official $43.85 · 156 history records