Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
87 0x87ec…1ee8 other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,224 (+2%) realized +$259 · open +$965
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%43W / 68L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$484per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$407est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$13,274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$281
7 days+$2,673
14 days+$2,760
30 days+$2,170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$1,834
other 44% +$113
politics 8% −$216
world 1% −$736
crypto 1% +$178
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -18.2% -26.0% 43% 37% +5.7%
≤30d 62 +16.0% +5.0% 44% 37% +0.7%
≤90d 110 -5.3% -14.3% 39% 34% -6.0%
all 111 -6.1% -15.1% 39% 33% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 33% -6.1%
10% -23.2% 29% -15.1%
15% -30.6% 22% -23.3%
20% -37.4% 20% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$504) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$189 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$13,274
Realized+$259
Unrealized+$965
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses43 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$407
Open positions15
Markets (closed)111 / 126
History coverage92d
Avg bet$484
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 74¢ $3,000 $3,287 +$287 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1,640 $2,024 +$384 (+23%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 94¢ $1,200 $1,543 +$343 (+29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,620 $1,390 −$230 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,130 $1,255 +$125 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $900 $1,208 +$308 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $882 $665 −$217 (-25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $379 $557 +$178 (+47%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $536 $536 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $400 $376 −$24 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $432 $288 −$144 (-33%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $130 $117 −$12 (-10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-54%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $7 −$12 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $306 −$225 -74%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,010 −$779 -77%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1,618 +$960 +59%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,015 −$826 -81%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $87 −$85 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,011 +$550 +54%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $204 −$121 -59%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $203 +$245 +121%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $1,019 +$1,713 +168%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,016 +$540 +27%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $509 −$424 -83%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $510 +$854 +167%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$124 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,006 +$30 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $4,213 +$206 +5%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 16 $2,018 +$524 +26%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,313 +$840 +64%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $527 −$516 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $468 −$460 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 +$772 +252%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $517 −$507 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $505 +$156 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$58 -57%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $305 +$149 +49%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,371 −$853 -62%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,015 +$290 +29%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $304 +$226 +74%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $203 +$33 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 +$210 +103%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $738 +$132 +18%
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $102 −$101 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gra Jun 07 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 07 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $203 −$156 -77%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $102 +$10 +10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1,018 +$1,027 +101%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 05 $13 −$12 -89%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $102 −$10 -10%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $409 −$3 -1%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $1,206 −$946 -78%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $2,227 −$969 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3,029 52m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $409 1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $81 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $231 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,578 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 9¢ $23 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 9¢ $22 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 8¢ $42 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 8¢ $82 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1,618 10h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $87 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,015 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,561 28h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $83 28h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $1,011 29h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $449 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 37¢ $1,019 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $62 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $123 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $321 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $2,557 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $2,016 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $304 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $163 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $82 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $85 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,274.21 · official $13,274.21 (match) · 390 history records