Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87ec…f2a9 sports 145 markets active 6d ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$347 (-18%) realized −$348 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%63W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$123
14 days−$228
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$423
other 11% +$66
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -40.7% -46.3% 25% 25% -72.8%
≤30d 43 -25.3% -32.4% 37% 37% -35.4%
≤90d 144 +1.3% -8.3% 44% 43% -26.7%
all 144 +1.3% -8.3% 44% 43% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 43% -26.7%
10% -17.1% 42% -33.7%
15% -25.1% 40% -40.1%
20% -32.4% 35% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$348
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses63 / 81
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage53d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $126 −$125 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $22 +$31 +137%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $41 −$41 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 04 $29 +$19 +64%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $53 −$52 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $81 +$67 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$35 -69%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $10 +$11 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $20 +$10 +49%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 23 $5 +$5 +98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $10 +$20 +195%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 23 $10 +$5 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 May 23 $5 +$4 +73%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 May 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 22 $56 +$53 +96%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 May 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 19 $5 −$1 -28%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 +$9 +180%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $21 −$4 -21%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 84¢ $100 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 51¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 51¢ $5 6d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 39¢ $4 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $10 6d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) SELL Spurs 49¢ $12 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 33¢ $3 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 35¢ $4 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 37¢ $5 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 52¢ $5 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 54¢ $5 8d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 40¢ $10 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 10¢ $1 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 11¢ $1 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 11¢ $2 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 26¢ $3 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 29¢ $3 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 30¢ $1 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 30¢ $2 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 39¢ $4 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 41¢ $4 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $5 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $5 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.73 · official $5.73 (match) · 369 history records