Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87f0…6abc weather 371 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$142 (-1%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate86%320W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$28
sports 9% −$192
crypto 2% +$21
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 89 +1.6% -8.1% 92% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 292 -1.7% -11.1% 88% 9% -9.8%
all 370 -1.2% -10.6% 86% 11% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 11% -10.4%
10% -19.2% 6% -19.0%
15% -27.0% 4% -26.8%
20% -34.2% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses320 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)370 / 371
History coverage236d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 24 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22? Jun 23 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? Jun 22 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C or higher on June Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $130 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 10? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 10? Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $120 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $104 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $40 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $18 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $64 9h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 22h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $100 25h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $13 25h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $86 32h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 32h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $0 32h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $43 32h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $130 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $132 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.93 · official $139.93 (match) · 1040 history records