Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x87f3…4cdf sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$190 (+19%) realized +$300 · open −$110
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$160
other 38% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -29.7% -36.4% 36% 36% -6.3%
≤30d 11 -29.7% -36.4% 36% 36% -6.3%
≤90d 11 -29.7% -36.4% 36% 36% -6.3%
all 11 -29.7% -36.4% 36% 36% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.4% 36% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -42.4% 36% -15.3%
15% -48.0% 27% -23.5%
20% -53.1% 27% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$56 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$300
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg Dylan Dietrich 19¢ $58 $17 −$41 (-70%)
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 Under 43¢ $70 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $141 −$100 -71%
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Humbert Jun 28 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $92 −$87 -94%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $21 +$5 +25%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $118 +$79 +67%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $85 +$72 +85%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu Jun 27 $96 +$188 +196%
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman Jun 27 $122 −$50 -41%
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Dylan Dietrich 19¢ $59 13m
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 43¢ $71 35m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 50¢ $102 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert SELL Zizou Bergs 50¢ $36 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert SELL Zizou Bergs 47¢ $87 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 15¢ $40 2h
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Humbert BUY Bergs 34¢ $59 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $60 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $21 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $3 11h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 21¢ $26 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 81¢ $112 12h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 39¢ $55 12h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 63¢ $86 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 41¢ $71 12h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $21 12h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 45¢ $63 13h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $26 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 73¢ $109 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 22¢ $34 14h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu SELL Elena Micic 99¢ $146 15h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu SELL Elena Micic 45¢ $67 15h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu SELL Elena Micic 38¢ $70 16h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu BUY Elena Micic 16¢ $48 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 45¢ $48 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 23¢ $17 16h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu BUY Elena Micic 24¢ $48 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $51 16h
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman BUY Oscar Weightman 35¢ $51 18h
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman SELL Paul Inchauspe 64¢ $118 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.22 · official $17.22 (match) · 32 history records