Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:29:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

87 0x87f7…4226 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$7 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate46%6W / 7L

Drawdown94%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day15.2pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit54%portable

Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-22.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-14.0%	-22.2%	46%	38%	-0.3%
≤30d	13	-14.0%	-22.2%	46%	38%	-0.3%
≤90d	13	-14.0%	-22.2%	46%	38%	-0.3%
all	13	-14.0%	-22.2%	46%	38%	-0.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.2%	38%	-0.3%
10%	-29.7%	31%	-9.8%
15%	-36.5%	31%	-18.5%
20%	-42.7%	23%	-26.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -35% → late +4% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$13

Realized+$7

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)46%

Wins / losses6 / 7

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)13 / 24

History coverage2d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day15.2

Drawdown94%

Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$11	$11	−$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first?	Yes	8¢	10¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	FURIA	12¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 21	$35	+$16	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 21	$14	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Jun 21	$23	−$9	-40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 21	$25	−$1	-6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$17	+$9	+52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$1	+$1	+67%
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Brazil to win the second half?	Jun 20	$10	+$2	+20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	Jun 20	$1	+$2	+171%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$11	1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	10¢	$1	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	SELL Up	80¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$13	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$10	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	42¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$2	2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY FURIA	11¢	$1	2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY FURIA	13¢	$1	3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$25	4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$17	42h
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Brazil to win the second half?	SELL	76¢	$12	42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	SELL	94¢	$3	42h
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Brazil to win the second half?	BUY	62¢	$10	2d
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? AND United States to wi	BUY	25¢	$1	2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	19¢	$1	2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A	BUY	6¢	$1	2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on	BUY	12¢	$1	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	15¢	$1	2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY	4¢	$1	2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Ha	BUY	2¢	$1	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	34¢	$1	2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$1	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.16 · official $14.16 · 38 history records